The Dodgers' season just ended, and now the real fight over Tarik Skubal starts for real.
Tarik Skubal's free agency is officially underway after the Los Angeles Dodgers were swept out of the NLCS by the Milwaukee Brewers in October 2026, leaving the two-time American League Cy Young Award winner set to hit the open market as one of the most coveted pitchers in baseball history. A new MLB Trade Rumors poll published October 16 is already asking the question everyone wants answered: who signs him next?
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Dodgers' Playoff Exit Triggers Tarik Skubal Free Agency Countdown
Skubal pitched for the Dodgers down the stretch after arriving in a blockbuster trade, but Los Angeles never got the World Series run it wanted. Milwaukee swept the Dodgers out of the NLCS, and that elimination flipped a switch. Skubal is no longer a trade chip or a rental arm. He's a free agent in waiting, and every team with deep pockets suddenly has a real shot at him.
The numbers from that MLB Trade Rumors poll say a lot about how fans see this playing out. Sixty-seven percent of readers who voted said no, Skubal will not re-sign with the Dodgers, based on a tally of 341 votes shown on the site's homepage. That's a striking number for a team that just had him on its roster and has the payroll to pay almost anyone.
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How Tarik Skubal Ended Up With the Dodgers in the First Place
This whole situation traces back to Detroit. Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said his front office approached Skubal's camp about a contract extension, but got a clear answer back: Skubal planned to test free agency. Harris didn't fight it. He called it Skubal's right to make that choice.
So two days before the early August trade deadline, the Tigers sent Skubal to the Dodgers for outfielder Zyhir Hope and right-handed pitchers River Ryan and Brady Smith. It was a classic rental move, trading an ace nearing free agency for young, controllable talent instead of risking losing him for nothing but a draft pick later on.
Skubal didn't hide his feelings about leaving Detroit. Days after the trade, he appeared on Barstool Sports' "Pardon My Take" and said he would love to play his entire career in Detroit. He also said he hoped contract talks could pick back up in November once the playoffs wrapped up, a comment that keeps a Tigers reunion at least theoretically alive.
Mets, Yankees and a Record-Setting Price Tag Loom Over Tarik Skubal's Next Contract
The New York Mets have become the name most connected to Skubal outside of Los Angeles and Detroit. According to SNY's Chelsea Janes, if owner Steve Cohen decides he wants Skubal and Skubal wants New York, the Mets will match whatever offer it takes to get the deal done. New York's rotation reportedly needs a true frontline starter more urgently than the Dodgers or Yankees do, which only adds fuel to that connection.
Still, Janes was careful to note that money alone won't settle this. Whether Skubal actually wants to pitch in New York remains an open question, and that preference could matter just as much as Cohen's checkbook. The Yankees have also been mentioned as serious players, and the San Diego Padres have come up in broader speculation about possible landing spots.
The dollar figures being tossed around are enormous. One projection pegged the deal at an average of eight years and 355 million dollars, which would be the biggest contract ever for a full-time pitcher and the fourth-largest free-agent deal in baseball history. Other forecasts have gone even higher, with some suggesting a total value above 400 million dollars, and one projection floating a possible ten-year deal worth roughly 500 million dollars.
Why Detroit Can't Be Ruled Out Despite Trading Him Away
It sounds strange that a team could trade its ace and still be in the mix to sign him back months later, but that's exactly where the Tigers sit. Skubal's public comments about loving Detroit and wanting to finish his career there keep that door open, even if it's a long shot. Reuniting would likely require the Tigers to hand out one of the largest contracts in franchise history, a massive financial leap for a small-market club.
Skubal turns 30 on November 20, a detail that matters more than it might seem. Teams bidding on him are essentially buying his prime years rather than paying for decline, which is a big reason his price keeps climbing in agent circles. Scott Boras represents Skubal, and Boras has a long track record of pushing markets toward their absolute ceiling.
What Comes Next in the Tarik Skubal Sweepstakes
Hanging over all of this is the scheduled MLB lockout, set to begin December 1. That deadline gives teams a real incentive to figure out their plans before labor uncertainty potentially freezes the market or scrambles front office priorities. Clubs will be weighing medical history, payroll flexibility, and how much risk they're willing to take on a contract that could stretch a full decade.
Right now, nothing is settled. No team has reported a signed deal, a formal offer, or a confirmed preferred destination from Skubal himself. What's clear is that the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Tigers will all be chasing him hard before the lockout hits, and the outcome could reshape the asking price for every elite pitcher who hits free agency after him.
