Traders are bracing for another rocky session as oil prices and foreign selling refuse to ease up.
Stock market Monday predictions for October 26, 2026, point to continued pressure on Indian equities after the Sensex and Nifty 50 closed out a brutal week marked by rising crude oil prices, heavy foreign investor selling and rising tension in the Middle East. The Nifty ended Friday, October 23, at 22,600, down 87.65 points, while the Sensex slipped 125.56 points to settle at 73,123.83, marking a fourth straight losing session.
Indian Stock Market Monday Outlook: Can Sensex, Nifty Keep Rally Alive?
Four Days Of Losses Set The Stage For Monday
The numbers from last week tell a clear story. The Sensex dropped nearly 2% and the Nifty fell about 2.35% over the week ending October 23, snapping a two-week winning run. Friday's session saw the Nifty slide to an intraday low of 22,372 before clawing back roughly 228 points by the close. The Sensex recovered close to 670 points from its lowest point of the day, but that bounce wasn't enough to turn the mood positive.
Selling wasn't limited to a handful of stocks. Broader markets underperformed the main indices, and market breadth stayed weak, meaning more stocks fell than rose across the board. Private banks and information technology names saw notable profit booking, according to reports tracking the session, adding to the sense that this wasn't a one-sector problem but a market-wide retreat.
Nifty Snaps 8-Week Losing Streak: Sudeep Shah's Target and 5 Stock Picks Explained
Crude Oil Near 117 Dollars Is Rattling Investors
Brent crude has become the single biggest worry for Indian markets right now. One market report placed Brent at $114.42 a barrel on Friday, up 1.10% for the day, while another account said prices had pushed past $117 a barrel. Either way, the direction is the same, and it's not good news for an economy that imports most of its oil.
The spike traces back to escalating tensions in West Asia, where fears of disruption to energy supply routes have kept traders on edge. Higher crude prices squeeze India's trade balance, stoke inflation worries and raise costs for companies that depend heavily on fuel and raw materials. Analysts tracking the situation, including one quoted simply as Mukherjee, pointed to Brent crude, developments between the US and Iran, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict as the forces investors need to watch heading into the new week.
Foreign Investors Keep Pulling Money Out
Foreign institutional investors sold ₹3,458.70 crore worth of Indian shares on October 22 alone, while domestic institutional investors stepped in as buyers with ₹2,891.32 crore worth of purchases that same day. That pattern, foreign funds selling and domestic funds buying, has defined much of the recent trading, with domestic money cushioning the fall rather than reversing it entirely.
The bigger picture is even more striking. One report tracking October's cumulative outflows put foreign selling at roughly ₹51,465 crore against domestic buying of about ₹59,110 crore for the month. A separate report cited a slightly different figure of ₹48,056 crore in October outflows, pushing total 2026 foreign withdrawals to around ₹3.08 lakh crore. The gap between these numbers likely comes down to different reporting cut-off dates, but the overall trend is unmistakable. Elevated crude prices, geopolitical tensions and worries over corporate earnings continue to weigh on investor sentiment, according to market commentary tied to the sell-off.
What Else Could Move Markets On Monday
Beyond oil and foreign flows, traders are also watching currency pressure and US Treasury yields, both of which make dollar assets more attractive and pull money away from emerging markets like India. US GDP data is another factor on the radar, alongside ongoing corporate earnings season, where weak results could deepen worries about stretched valuations while strong numbers from heavyweight companies might offer some relief.
There's also a liquidity angle unique to this moment. Investors are keeping an eye on the Reliance Jio IPO, amid concern that its subscription and allocation process could soak up a large chunk of domestic and foreign cash that might otherwise support the broader market. That makes it a factor worth tracking alongside the bigger macro story, not a side issue.
Technical Levels And What A Rebound Would Need
Market coverage pointed to support near 22,800 and resistance near 23,175 heading into the week, but Friday's close at 22,600 means the index has already slipped below that support zone, raising questions about where the next floor might be. A genuine bounce would likely require either a pullback in crude prices or a cooling of tensions in the Middle East, something that hasn't materialized yet.
Global markets haven't offered much help either. Indices overseas also declined last week, reinforcing the gloomy mood at home and reducing the odds that Indian markets catch a lift from international risk appetite on Monday. Domestic institutional buying remains a stabilizing presence, but with foreign outflows running into tens of thousands of crores, most analysts following the story suggest the market needs more than scattered bargain hunting to turn the tide.
