After eight brutal weeks of losses, Nifty finally caught a break, and one top analyst thinks the bounce could have more room to run.
Nifty ended its longest losing streak in roughly 25 years on Friday, October 10, 2026, jumping nearly 1.3% to close above 22,500 as IT, FMCG and auto stocks led the charge. Sudeep Shah, vice president and head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities, now says a move past 22,750 to 22,800 could pave the way toward 23,000.
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Eight Weeks of Pain Finally Breaks
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The scale of the recent slide is hard to ignore. Nifty fell for eight straight weeks, a losing run not seen in about 25 years, and even worse than the seven-week slump tied to the COVID crash. Over that stretch, the index dropped somewhere between 8.5% and 8.75%, according to market trackers who watched the index sink week after week with barely a pause.
Things got so bad that the September derivatives series closed down 6.7%, its worst performance for that period in 25 years. Foreign investors pulled out close to ₹25,662 crore during this stretch, piling pressure on an already nervous market. Rising US bond yields added to the strain, pushing bearish bets higher in the futures market and keeping buyers on the sidelines for weeks.
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Sudeep Shah Lays Out The Nifty Target And Stock Picks
That is exactly the backdrop against which Sudeep Shah's Nifty target and stock picks are drawing attention this week. Shah pointed to 22,750 to 22,800 as the zone that matters most right now. He said a sustained move above this band, especially a strong close over 22,800, could pave the way for an extension towards 23,100, followed by 23,300 in the short term.
Shah framed the bigger question simply: is Nifty preparing for a meaningful rebound, or just pausing before its next decisive move? He also flagged Nifty Private Bank as a sector that looks better positioned than the broader market over the near term, giving traders a sector to watch alongside the index itself.
Among individual names, Shah's Nifty target and stock picks list includes Karur Vysya Bank and Radico Khaitan, according to the latest coverage of his technical calls. Karur Vysya Bank had been stuck in a tight range between ₹311 and ₹331 since September 22, bouncing mostly between its 50-day and 100-day moving averages. That range finally broke on October 9, with the stock pushing higher out of the ₹320 to ₹310 zone that had capped it earlier.
What The Charts Are Showing On Karur Vysya Bank
Shah pointed to a sharply rising RSI and a positive crossover between the DI-plus and DI-minus lines in the ADX indicator as signs that momentum is turning bullish for Karur Vysya Bank. Based on that setup, he suggested accumulating the stock between ₹336 and ₹342, with a stop-loss at ₹328 to manage risk, and a short-term target of ₹365.
Radico Khaitan also appears on Shah's radar for the coming week, though the specific entry range, stop-loss and target for that stock were not fully detailed in the available coverage. Traders tracking this call should check the original source directly before placing any trade, since exact risk levels can shift the entire setup.
Why The Bigger Nifty Picture Still Matters
Zooming out, the index's approach to its 200-week moving average made the 22,600 region especially important heading into Friday's rally. Earlier commentary had placed support between 21,743 and 22,182, with resistance sitting around 22,550 to 22,600, a zone Nifty has now cleared. Other analysts have separately flagged 22,200 as the key support to watch, with 22,000 and 21,750 as the next levels down if that floor gives way.
This is not the first time Shah has walked traders through a shifting Nifty landscape this season. Just weeks earlier, he had flagged 22,100 as a key support level while discussing stocks like PB Fintech, Infosys and TCS ahead of quarterly earnings. Before that, in mid-September, he had called the 23,000 to 23,050 zone a crucial support during a different leg of the correction, with 23,500 marked as the hurdle. The market has moved a long way since then, and the reference points keep shifting as the correction deepens and then partially unwinds.
What Traders Should Watch Next
The next few trading sessions look decisive for anyone following Sudeep Shah's Nifty target and stock picks. If the index manages a sustained close above 22,800, the path toward 23,000, then 23,100 and 23,300, stays open. If it stalls at resistance, attention will likely swing back to the 22,200 support zone, and potentially lower, if selling pressure returns.
Beyond the charts, foreign investor flows, US bond yields, and the upcoming corporate earnings season will all play a role in deciding whether this rebound has legs or fades quickly. For now, the eight-week losing streak is over, but as Shah himself put it, the real test is whether this is a genuine turnaround or just a pause before markets decide their next move.
